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Sales forecasts for 2009*
In 2009 the market of children's goods in Russia will grow at least five times, and this is according pessimistic scenarios. However, according to optimistic forecasts, the market will grow nine to ten times its current amount. Which forecast will be more accurate depends on the presence of large trading networks in the country. If the networks will become greater (and such a tendency was observed in 2008), then most likely the development will proceed according to the more optimistic scenario. According to the agency RBC, the market of children's good will grow on the average of 15% per year until 2010. According to moderate forecasts, in 2009 the volume of the market of children's goods will make $14.5 billion, and in 2010 --- $16.2 billion. The potential market capacity of children's goods is estimated still higher: $20-22 billion. Thus, the saturation of the market will occur not earlier than 2012-2013. The most extensive segment of the market is children's clothes and footwear, which accounts for 43 % of the market, or $4.5 billion. Certain growth in the children's clothing market is guaranteed for two reasons: a change in the norms for consumption (parents have begun to buy more often) and a stabilization in the country's demographics (an increase in the birth rate). This speaks to fact that European manufacturers in Russia have a fine opportunity to provide for this demand in production. A curious fact which will please manufacturers of clothing for newborns: the current economic crisis and reduction in personnel have led many Russians to use this time as maternity leave. The birth of a child which was postponed because of career has now been taken off the backburner and moved into the foreground. There will also be more consumers for the manufacturers of brand-name clothing because now the deciding factors for purchases have become the popularity of the brand name and the broad assortment of clothing available. With the background of sharp competition in other segments of the clothing market, an investment in the children's industry can be very favorable. Channels of distribution It is important for European distributors to understand the structure of distribution of children's goods in Russia. Researchers estimate that 36% of all purchases of children's goods in 2007 were made in chain stores, 16% in shopping centers, 14% in normal non-specialty shops, and 12% in hyper- and supermarkets. In 2004 it became necessary to begin the establishment of specialized trade when two large (??? I have no idea how to translate ìàñøòàáíûå ïðîåêòû) hypermarkets of children's goods came out on the market---"Detskii mir" (Children's World), and "BananaMama." Now the largest retail players are the chain stores "Detskii mir," "Zdorovii malish" (Healthy Child), "Koroblik" (The Ship), "Kenguru" (Kangaroo), "Dlya tebya i mami" (For You and Mom), "Deti" (Children), "Mothercare," "Nasha mama" (Our Mom), "Begemot, gipermarket igrushek" (Hippopotamus, Hypermarket of Toys), "Premaman," and "Rikki-Tikki." The share of specialized retail continues to grow. In second place is the increase in sales in hyper- and supermarkets. Regional Appeal From the point of view of potential appeal of trade in children's goods, the top ten Russian regions appear as follows (in decreasing order): Moscow, the Moscow area, Sverdlovsk area, Republic Bashkortostan, Hunts-Mansiiskii autonomous region, Krasnodar territory, St.-Petersburg, Republic Tatarstan, the Chelyabinsk area, the Rostov area. More than half of the families in the regions spend about 3000 rubles a month for purchasing children's goods. In Moscow such families make up one third, and the most frequent range of expenditure for them is 3000-5000 rubles a month.
Statistics of number of children in Russia by age groups *according to date from the RBC agency |
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